(402-7) PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS – THE DELPHI METHOD
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(402-7) Predictive Analysis – The Delphi Method
The Delphi Method is an analytical technique used to predict future behavior by humans. This method is deemed accurate as it takes into consideration the opinions and views of a range of experts in a certain field. This process undergoes various stages, resulting in the elimination of ideas that do not conform to the majority view. The views are analyzed on a box-whisker plot basis with those falling in the median position being considered and sent back to the experts for further analysis. Therefore, the final decision arrived at is an agreement of ideas from people with expert opinion on different behaviors and personalities, thus showing the most common views.
In my opinion, the Delphi Method has an advantage over the LAMP Method because it compares expert opinion from different people. As such, the analyst is faced with rivaling opinions from differing viewpoints, which ensure that the final opinion is all-rounded and puts into consideration various expert views. The LAMP Method, on the other hand, may be subject to bias as the analyst himself creates the different scenarios to make comparisons[1], based on those parties that he deems to be key players in a situation. The analyst may pursue fewer options providing an analysis that is not fully comprehensive.
I also find the Delphi Method to be superior as it allows one to identify the difference in opinions between groups of people. This helps the analyst to identify the range of thoughts in individuals when determining the possible outcomes in a situation. As the process involves making available feedback to the participants, it allows stimulation of ideas in a manner previously not explored ensuring that the participants all approach the subject from different angles[2]. The decisions are not imposed on any person as there is no superior individual since the final opinion chosen is that in the median.
Bibliography
Dr. Lockwood, Jonathan S. and Kathleen O’Brien Lockwood. The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP). Joint Military Intelligence College, 1994.
Strauss,
Harlan. J. and L. Harmon Zeigler. “The Delphi
Technique and its Uses in Social Science Research.” Journal of Creative
Behavior, Vol. 9, Issue 4, 1975: 253-259.
[1] Dr. Jonathan S. Lockwood, and Kathleen O’Brien Lockwood, The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) (Joint Military Intelligence College, 1994).
[2] Harlan. J. Strauss, and L. Harmon Zeigler. “The Delphi Technique and its Uses in Social Science Research.” (Journal of Creative Behavior, Vol. 9, Issue 4, 1975): 253-259