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Iran Nuclear Program
Waltz argues that nuclear weapons can make defense and deterrence easier therefore avoiding the possibility of war. States discourage others from attacking them by improving and strengthening their defense and by deterring them by threat of punishment. Using nuclear weapons is bound to cause unlimited suffering. Countries are not able to estimate the losses they would incur if nuclear weapons were used. Leaders want to continue ruling and the use of nuclear weapons would decrease their possibility of doing so. Therefore, they will avoid making any uncalculated risks. He argues that the use of nuclear weapons makes countries more cautious since they want to avoid losses and reduce costs associated with war. Countries do not see the need to fight if they will end up losing much and gaining little from the war.
Many countries are aware that they cannot survive if a nuclear war were to happen. Therefore, they will avoid any attempts of engaging in war. Waltz notes that countries are concerned about the cost of using nuclear weapons since it can be very high. He argues that countries use this rational to avoid such wars from happening. Having only one country or a few select countries with nuclear weapons makes them overwhelmingly strong. Only such states can afford to be radical to the extent of using nuclear weapons abroad. In 1981, Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facility as a preventive measure. However, Iran did not retaliate, although it obviously had the capacity to do so. This shows that Iran would hesitate in using nuclear weapons.
Following Waltz’s argument, I do not think that a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat. The country stands to lose much if it would use nuclear weapons. As waltz noted, it is not possible to calculate the risks of a nuclear attack. The country would not be able to prevent the adverse effects of using nuclear weapons from happening. I also think that Iran would be prevented from using nuclear weapons because of fear of punishment. Other countries are likely to retaliate, meaning that the country would stand to lose more than it gained. In addition, Waltz notes that only overwhelmingly strong countries can afford to be radical in their use of nuclear weapons. Although Iran does have nuclear weapons, it does not have enough to make it strong. It is not in a capacity to dictate to other countries what to do. There are many radicals in the country, but they would not consider using nuclear weapons to such an extent that the country poses an existential threat.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Nikita Khrushcheve conceived the idea of using nuclear weapons as a way of countering advances from the US. The weapons were from the Soviet Union. They strengthened the country’s defense. The use of nuclear weapons in Cuba reduced the threat of violence and it led to the development of other means of solving the crisis. America was willing to talk and negotiate with the Soviet Union over the matter. It wanted to prevent the spread of any other nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union from reaching Cuba. In the end, the US made a pact that it would not invade Cuba. America was aware of the consequences of using nuclear weapons. It had imagined the risks that such a move would entail. People from different countries would be affected if the nuclear weapons were used. Therefore, although America had its own arsenal of nuclear weapons it opted to look for a new way of dealing with the crisis, which included avoiding the use of nuclear weapons.