Shift Share Analysis

Shift Share Analysis



Shift Share Analysis

Within North American region, specifically in Campbellton- Miramich, New Brunswick, construction is one of the fastest growing industries. This is highlighted by the growing size of the labor force in this industry. Over the last one and a half decades, since 1998 to 2013, it has continued to record growth except between 1998 and 2003 when it went down by 13%. However, between 2008 and 2013, the industry recorded a growth of 21% in the labor force, which outperformed the country. It has a Regional shift-share of 0.584. This can only be explained by the fact that this region is changing at a fast rate compared to others, which requires more structures to accumulate the growing number of people within cities. This growth can also be explained by the economic development program of rural regions, where New Brunswick got $50 million issued from 2011 to 2015 to businesses. This has allowed expansion, which triggered an increase in construction work. Finally, people within the region are changing from traditional forms of livelihood to modern ones. For instance, fishing communities have reduced in number, favoring modern ways of life. This means a need for more construction since people are moving to the city instead of remaining in their rural residences.

            While the construction industry in this region is outperforming the country, others are under-performing. One of the under-performing industries within this region is trade, which had a regional shift-share of -2.383 and a percentage change of -21%. The national growth share was for this industry was 11.414 while the region recorded 8.7. This can be explained by the changing economic activities of the region. With the number of fishing communities reducing, there is little the region can trade in. Being located within two rivers means plenty of fish. However, without the fishing communities the output goes down, hence reducing the labor force employed in the trading industry. In addition to disappearing fishing communities, downsizing of public sectors has negatively affected the economy, contributing to a reduction in trade. There is a change in economic activities that people want to engage in. With many moving to cities, there are few people left to conduct trade especially in items. Furthermore, technological advancement has greatly changed the way people live in this region. The educated youth are looking for jobs in other areas, which are not related to the main economic activities of the region such as fishing, the population of the area is also reducing considering it dropped from 162,496 in 2006 to158, 741 people, in 2011. Another reason explaining the negative growth in this industry is the 2008 recession, where many companies were downsizing throughout the world. This saw many people lose their jobs, which caused the reduction in labour force.

            Another industry in the area that has underperformed compared to national level is Healthcare and Social Assistance. Its regional shift-share is -2.227. This industry experienced an employment sliding in 2012, which could be a result of the recession that had hit earlier. During the height of the recession, the number of people employed in this industry was higher than previous and later years. This can be because many people could not afford healthcare in the recession, which is why the government had to assist. However, after the recession it is clear that the number of employees is reducing, probably because people can be in a position to afford healthcare. The sliding employment rate in healthcare and social assistance indicates that not many people need it, which is positive for the whole nation. For New Brunswick, the main reason for under-performing the industry can be explained by the fact that not all regions are equal in terms of healthcare needs. Therefore, a reduction in healthcare and social assistance labour force could indicate varied things about the region.

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