Using an Empirical Climate Model

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Using an Empirical Climate Model

Climate Forcing ComponentHow Much of the ‘Best Fit’ Can Be ExplainedOther Observations Based on Manipulation of the Model
El Nino1.1%The 2nd graph (red line) reduces with the changes
Volcanic10.1%The temperature returns to equilibrium around 1995 following fluctuations during 1992
Solar Cycles1.2%No noticeable changes to the temperature
Anthropogenic51%It appears the temperature is gradually declining with minimal deviations.

Question One

When the anthropogenic and volcanic settings are change to 0 and 1, there is a change in both observations. The temperature experiences a sharp decline in 1992 and instead of returning to equilibrium, there is equally another sharp decline in the anthropogenic.

            El-Nino and volcanoes seem to balance each other due to their extreme temperature differences. The best fit is drawn when they are both at zero.

Question Two

While all four effects have considerable implications on global temperatures, it is evident that anthropogenic and volcanic variables have the greatest effect on climate change. The consequences are more drastic and long-lasting compared to the other two variables.

Question Three

According to research, empirical models depend on past events and observations to draw inferences or conclusions (Pierce et al. 8442; Skelton et al. 18). On the other hand, global climate models (GCM) use equations and data to make climate predictions. The data-based approach is GSM greatest strength as it negates human errors. On the other hand, it is complex and relies on vast amounts of data (Zhu et al. 8729). The empirical model is useful because it factors in El-Nino and other natural disasters. However, observations are prone to human error.  

Question Four

Empirical models are best applied to scientists in the comparison of global climate patterns that span years. Some weather occurrences cannot be tracked on a daily basis as they take many years to occur (McCrystall et al. 6765). Empirical models provide leeway to consider the longitudinal changes and their effects on global weather.

Works Cited

McCrystall, Michelle R et al. “New Climate Models Reveal Faster and Larger Increases in Arctic Precipitation Than Previously Projected.” Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 2021, pp. 6765., doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y

Pierce, David W et al. “Selecting Global Climate Models for Regional Climate Change Studies.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 106, no. 21, 2009, pp. 8441-6. doi:10.1073/pnas.0900094106

Skelton, Maurice et al. “Customising Global Climate Science for National Adaptation: A case Study of Climate Projections in UNFCCC’s National Communications.” Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 101, 2019, pp. 16-23. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.015

Zhu, Feng et al. “Climate Models Can Correctly Simulate the Continuum of Global-Average Temperature Variability.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 116, no. 18, 2019, pp. 8728-8733. doi:10.1073/pnas.1809959116

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